- AccuWeather forecasts that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could end without a single hurricane, the first such occurrence since 1914.
- Super El Niño conditions are increasing wind shear and dry air, suppressing hurricane development in the Atlantic this season.
- Despite warm sea surface temperatures, the stable Main Development Region has prevented tropical waves from developing into hurricanes during 2026.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching a historic milestone, with AccuWeather forecasting the possibility that the season could end without a single hurricane — something that has not occurred in more than a century.
According to an AccuWeather release, hurricane experts say strengthening Super El Niño conditions are increasingly suppressing tropical development across the Atlantic, raising the possibility that the basin could finish the season without a hurricane.
For the first time, AccuWeather is forecasting the possibility of zero hurricanes forming during the 2026 season. If no hurricanes develop, it would be the first hurricane-free Atlantic season since 1914.
“We are witnessing one of the most extraordinary Atlantic hurricane seasons in modern history,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, in the release. “There is an increasingly likely scenario in which the Atlantic season ends without a single hurricane for the first time in more than a century. All of this despite sea surface temperatures being the second warmest on record for the North Atlantic basin this season.”
AccuWeather’s latest forecast calls for zero to two hurricanes to form in the Atlantic this season, with zero to two expected to reach major hurricane strength. AccuWeather said it is the first known source to forecast the possibility of zero hurricanes during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather continues to forecast three to five direct U.S. impacts this season. Three tropical storms — Arthur, Bertha and Edouard — have already directly impacted the United States.
El Niño playing significant role in quiet Atlantic season
El Niño increases wind shear across the Atlantic, which can prevent tropical storms from becoming organized and strengthening into hurricanes. This year, persistent wind shear across the Main Development Region, combined with areas of dry air, has disrupted tropical systems before they could intensify.
“Another contributing factor is the stability of the Main Development Region, which has been very stable,” DaSilva said in the release. “A more stable environment has prevented many tropical waves so far this year from developing after they emerge from Africa. This less conducive environment is expected to remain in place for the rest of the hurricane season.”
“While it is still anticipated to be possible that a hurricane develops through the end of the season, a hurricane-free Atlantic season is now a scenario that must be taken seriously,” DaSilva added.
The 2026 season has already reached extraordinary benchmarks for a lack of hurricane activity. The Atlantic passed the historical peak of the season without producing a hurricane, setting records for the latest first hurricane of the season.
AccuWeather notes that only one of three previous Super El Niño events produced an Atlantic hurricane after Oct. 1.
No Atlantic season during modern era has finished without a hurricane
The lack of hurricanes is particularly notable in the era of modern hurricane observation technology.
Beginning in 1966, routine satellite monitoring dramatically improved scientists’ ability to detect tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic. From 1900 to 1965, the Atlantic averaged just over nine tropical storms and hurricanes per year, compared with slightly more than 13 per year since 1966, when daily tracking became more comprehensive.
“Earlier records require additional context,” DaSilva said in the release. “Before satellites, tropical cyclones over remote stretches of ocean could easily escape detection if they did not encounter ships, populated islands or land. Nevertheless, historical data points to 1914 as the quietest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with only one documented tropical storm and no hurricanes.”
AccuWeather notes that 1907 and 1914 are the only two Atlantic hurricane seasons on record that produced no documented hurricanes. In 1914, an El Niño year, only one tropical storm was documented during the entire season. That storm made landfall in Florida before moving into Georgia with relatively minor impacts.
AccuWeather hurricane experts emphasize that the Atlantic hurricane season continues through Nov. 30, and tropical development can still occur during October and November.
The revised forecast of zero to two hurricanes reflects both the continuing possibility of tropical development and the increasingly plausible scenario that 2026 could end without an Atlantic hurricane.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists are available to discuss forecast updates, storm reports and severe-weather developments.