A majority of U.S. economists say the next recession is still coming, just later than they first expected, the National Association for Business Economics reported Monday.

One-third of the 48 economists who responded to the survey expect a recession to begin anywhere from April to June. One-fifth estimate a recession to start between July and September. Fifty-eight percent of respondents predict a recession sometime in 2023, but a January hike in retail and restaurant sales suggests many consumers feel financially prosperous enough to spend.

What is a recession? It depends on who you ask. One rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of a shrinking gross domestic product means recession. By that measure, the U.S. had a small recession last year.

The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” The U.S. recession in 2008 was the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

This story originally appeared in WORLD. © 2023, reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.